By David CottleThere was a scientist on television the other night, a telegenic geologist, wondering where the next Ice Age is. It’s late, he said. Apparently, according to the creeping predictability of climate cycles, we ought to be back in the deep freeze by now. The spire of the Chrysler Building should be poking up through a glacier while mammoths trudge up and down the frozen Thames.And, as with ice ages, so it is with sterling crises. They come around with tiresome regularity, too, and we haven’t had a proper one for a while. Surely it can’t be long. In truth, the pound has been sliding for a couple of years, from absurd peaks,nike obuv, as it became clearer in the U.K. than anywhere else that the past decade’s prosperity was a credit-fueled mirage.Getty ImagesRecession, high public debt, sticky inflation and stricken banks; no doubt about it, the U.K. had all the symptoms. The old interest-rate differential that used to support sterling when all else failed was eroded, too, as rates were slashed to record lows.And now there’s a political problem. An opinion poll last weekend upped the ante on a “hung parliament.” Sadly, this wouldn’t mean politicians were strung up en masse in London’s parks, although voter turnout might beat records if it did. No, it’s simply a vote in which no political party gets a working majority after the general election that must come by early June.The U.K. is saddled with debt that almost deserves a new branch of mathematics to describe it. To be sure it has broader shoulders than those other profligate national scamps — Greece, Spain and Portugal — but still the markets want a plan to get that debt down. And they want it as soon as the votes are cast. A hung Parliament would make this plan harder to arrive at, wisdom has it, and harder to stick to.Now this may of course be so, but, then again, maybe not. U.K. local government is already gearing itself up for huge job losses in the years ahead, whoever wins. The idea that the axe is going to fall irrespective of who has the keys to 10 Downing Street is sinking in across a state accustomed to a blank check for years.Moreover,Lacoste greece online, one opinion poll doesn’t necessarily make it so: After all, hung parliaments are rare beasts. And, since Sunday’s poll gave the Conservative opposition a slender, two percentage point lead, other surveys have put it at seven percentage points. So take your pick.In truth, a lower pound should probably be welcomed as just the medicine the economy needs. Medicine isn’t always nice to take.Sterling is now well below its 10-year moving average against the dollar, but the last 10 years were, by and large, years of boom. We’re now in years of retrenchment.And manufacturing output rose at its fastest rate for 14 years last month thanks to rising orders and, guess what, strong exports.This is an example of the very rebalancing the U.K., and indeed the world, is supposed to need. Painful side effects are certain, but a weaker pound will help the economy get to where it needs to be.Appetite for London’s debt is probably more crucial and for now it’s holding up, judging by the latest auction of a couple of billion pounds’ worth of long-dated gilts. Despite all the doomsaying over sterling, demand was reasonable even if foreign investors didn’t throng the streets yelling bids.In the end, a weaker currency is the U.K.’s pressure valve, one Athens, Spain and Lisbon might well wish they had at their disposal right now.But it’s clear that politics will decide whether that weaker pound is simply a new reality or an ongoing process that will become “disorderly” and lead to a run. Sterling market sentiment is in for a blustery time as poll follows poll.Call the election, prime minister, before the ice age arrives in sterling markets.By Sameer Bhatia and Lisa LeeThomas H. Lee Partners‘ $928 million purchase of CKE Restaurants, parent company of Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s quick service restaurants, appears to be an opportunistic buy rather than a broader macro bet that the restaurant sector may have bottomed.T.H. Lee pounced on an attractive valuation, and there are a number of levers that the private equity firm can use to juice returns. If successful, the deal could open the door for more PE activity in the sector. Getty ImagesSales at quick service restaurant chains (QSRs) such as CKE held up better than their casual dining peers in the early stages of the recession, but their performance has lagged over the last year as the U.S. unemployment rate continued to rise. Regional chains such as Carl’s Jr. and Jack in the Box Inc. have been hit harder than national peers McDonald’s and Burger King because the former two have many outlets in California, a state hit particularly hard by the housing crunch.T.H. Lee is taking advantage of the 20% drop in CKE’s stock in recent months, a reaction to declining same-store sales. In September, the shares were trading above T.H. Lee’s $11.05 offer.A purchase price of just 6.1x enterprise value-to-Ebitda seems relatively inexpensive as well. Restaurant chains with a relatively high proportion of franchisee-owned units such as CKE tend to enjoy better margins and more stable bottom lines, typically leading to higher valuations. CKE’s franchise mix of 71% is closer to that of national peers such as Wendy’s/Arby’s Group Inc., Burger King and McDonald’s, which trade between 7x to 10x EV/Ebitda.While CKE’s lower multiple may be explained by scale,puma maratonki, CKE’s management could have argued for more money. This is what the market seems to believe, judging by CKE’s stock, which closed Friday at $11.37, modestly above T.H. Lee’s offer of $11.05.The deal is typical of the new norm for leveraged buyouts. The company will be levered at roughly 4.6x of lease-adjusted Ebitda, according to a source familiar with the deal. Private equity deal leverage of late has come between 4x to 5x Ebitda, well below ratios at the peak of the market, resulting in correspondingly lower asset valuations.Apart from the low valuation, there are other bells and whistles that could help enhance T.H. Lee’s potential return on the investment. CKE owns the underlying land and buildings for roughly 350 of its locations and the buildings for another 381, which it values on its balance sheet at $667 million. T.H. Lee could spin out these assets as a REIT to extract value, as some British pub chains have.T.H. Lee will also likely continue, or perhaps even accelerate, management’s initiative to sell company-owned restaurants to franchisees and expand into emerging markets such as China.There is a 40-day go-shop period during which the company says it will actively solicit other offers, but chances are remote that another financial bidder will top T.H. Lee’s offer since management is on board with the current proposal. But the deal could whet private equity’s appetite for other regional chains such as Red Robin Gourmet Burgers or Jack in the Box Inc. that also trade at a discount to the national chains.For T.H. Lee, this could be another appetizing buy similar to its successful 2006 investment in Dunkin’ Brands Inc.

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